few days ago the company presented results for the first half of 2010. Most of the media and analysts rushed to immediately report that its net profit had grown at around 68% while EBITDA was approximately 44%. Not enter into details, this is enough to simply comparing of the figures showed the company to make headlines while in some cases increased target prices.
all seemed so clear that the first impulse might be to invest, from here to heaven without limits or barriers. But no, I did not first examine the accounts and concludes that although they were slightly better than my estimates were not sufficiently justified nor euphoria that seemed to have unleashed. Let's clarify then. Lords
INDITEX EBITDA of 1 semester of 2010 was of 1157 mill / euros and net profit attributable to 628 in both cases actually much higher than the previous year but reviewing my notes I saw that my estimates for 2009 (full year) were of 2150 mill / Euros and net income of 1250. So if we consider that 2009 was going to be from the p. of v. consumption of a dismal year for most economies in recession (remember that we talked sector company) and that we are dealing with a company in continuous expansion, the published figures do not make me change my way of thinking about business.
Considering the figures published and capitalization at the end of 24 / 9 of 37,287 MILL / EUROS assume the following multipliers, once stretched into account the liquidity position remains:
PER: In the vicinity of 26.
EV / EBITDA : In the vicinity of 15.
All this assuming that the figures of the 2 nd semester of the first pass to about 10%.
So I still think that if not enough jusfiticaban prices in the vicinity of $ 50, let alone be justified in the environment 60.
some of you may think that my opinion is totally wrong and like I was wrong when he estimated that there was only room for one entry for under 35 Euros and we are now over 59, to better in a few months is trading at 75. In this reflection I can not just say that it is not going to quote prices in eg. 8 months but there is nothing new value and that there are options to consider before INDITEX, more if I had shares in the company, which is not the case, at current prices would not hesitate to sell, but would most likely be settled now. I am convinced that now there will be many investors who are being raised, if not already done so, a strategy and leg pairs INDITEX seller.
I think a look at my earlier comments about the company, may shed light on the issues now presented and the importance of not stopping at a simple comparison of numbers like that.
