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PENSION REFORM. "Again the 2 Spain? VIVENDI

few days ago the government of Spain has announced its intention to propose a reform of the pension system, little has materialized in this regard, only that the retirement age would be 67 years and that the implementation of the scheme would progressively from 2013.

Fits
thousand reflections, I think anyone is aware that only last a few weeks the government is fully filled his mouth saying the system was guaranteed to go to defend their proposal based on the need to ensure the benefits from 2020 and to appeal to their sense of responsibility, a responsibility that seemed to have no 30 days ago. Do not try to assess the need for reforms that are likely to be necessary, but if you intend them to reflect on the safety with which they have handled and managed our finances, for all because we can not forget that the pension system and health has much to do with the management to be performed.


UdS Do you think it has been managed the system properly?.


may be useful to reflect on the following questions: How


been allowed in many cases early retirement after 48 years?.


If gentlemen, in our country over the past 15 years has promoted the expulsion of the labor market of hundreds of thousands of workers under 60 years at great cost in lost talent and the corresponding financial resources to fund that expulsion, together with the pension that in most cases it has been several years before 65.


But also the different governments have encouraged early retirement law is enough to recall, among other figures of the replacement contract, under which a worker is allowed to access the early retirement provided that the post be filled by another worker. How


certain groups, such as read deputies are entitled to retirement pension with just a few years of contribution?.


It seems that we are again at 2 Spains, citizens with rights first and second they have rights that governments have let them.

need not go into other considerations but suffice remember the trend that we have as citizens to try to get part of the public where there is the paragon of rights and obligations not always.


According to the criteria that are handled in this blog, it seems necessary to show that the finances are not managed with the margin of safety required, certainly not the pension system or the whole of government . Beyond the need for solidarity, necessary for a pensions sitema seems clear that as much as is claimed must not forget, I think we need serious and especially "freedom of choice to citizens." Freedom is not limited to elect representatives every 4 years, on the contrary need to exercise as each affects the pension directly and I'm sure it does.


I will raise a series of questions to think about it:


1. Where is the solidarity when some citizens are allowed access to a benefit with 20 years of contributions while others are required 35?.


2. How can you treat differently from 2 people who have contributed 35 years to have a misfortune of being expelled from the labor market with 55 years?.


3. Why are the last 15 years that weight to determine the benefit?.


you do not believe that the reason for the need that now sells for reform is the result of:


a) Lack of courage and ability to really establish a rational and coherent system.


b) wastage of funds due to lack of proper management.


UDS Do you think that governments are managing well SPAIN resources available?.


I wonder if you can not manage more rigorously, eg


- Plans as we just saw and have been to spend 8000 Mill / Euros to the voice of now, plans have consisted of most cases to change the width of sidewalks, the paving of streets, etc.


- duplication of responsibilities in various Administrations in.


- Many enterprises within the various administrations that are managing expenditure and non-value, as Examples include TVs of different communities and gradually try to introduce too local.


- In short, do we need more than 3 million employees (state, regional, local) to the services provided by this country?. Meanwhile


think the solution to the problems coming for patching a pension system lacks rationality, while we are not aware that waste can not devote resources to create jobs that allow young people in this country (no doubt with training and skills) to develop its project of life that seems not entitled.


I will give, in my p. v, which should be some guidelines (features to look) of a real reform that would allow some degree of equity and solidarity, a solidarity which should be completed with funding from taxes (read: no new taxes but better management of existing ones) .


1) First of all workers' freedom to decide when to start working and when they decide to end their working lives.


2) Provision retirement taking into account all contributions made and the time in which you want to start to perceive, this is in terms of life expectancy of the moment in which it will begin to perceive. I wonder why can not decide to start working at age 20 and quit at 58?. If the worker then has a life expectancy of 22 years and prefer to have eg. a monthly pension of 1,300 Euros instead of 1,900, what is the reason for not accepting it?.


3) It is possible that certain groups have to have special conditions for the type of work they do and could study some correction factors when periods and calculations of the pension.


I have the perception that the political class in general and our country in particular, is fleeing the freedom of citizens and in general make a machine to control and irrational spending.

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. ACTION FOR misled investors

This weekend has seen a statement acknowledging that the company did not adequately inform investors about 9 years. The sentence will be appealed by the company could provide substantial compensation.


I am not surprised that this morning after the news became known on the market, shares go down VIVENDI more than 3% in fact currently listed in the environment of the 18 Euros. I take the fact that a good time to ask again if the price is always summarizes all information about a value, I repeat again that I do not think, because as it is possible to understand what happened cuendo was known to all the claim at issue to the point that the company will reflect in its financial statements.


Ni tratra view is that a manipulation to sell more shares to small investors and buy a really attractive price. Since the company has grown significantly in size after the acquisition a telephone operator ne BRAZIL, I will not go into a detailed fundamental analysis right now but I leave some UDS data to reflect on this. The data do not take into account the acquisition recently made.


1) the company's capitalization is now approximately 22,500 Mill / Euros.


2) Its net debt is about 8,000 miles / Euros. Liquid assets (Cash and equivalents) prior to acquisition just made in brazil over 3,000 Mill / Euros.


3) The net attributable profit stands in the vicinity of the 2,800-mile / Euros. EBITA in the environment of 5,400 all with a turnover of more than 27,000 miles / Euros.


4) In 2008 the operating cash flow net of debt interest and taxes exceeded the 3,700 Mill / Euros.


5) The company is a leader in the gaming industry is the second telecommunications operator in France and has a leading position in the media sector.


"It seems strange right?, Hard four pesetas and forgiveness because it is the equivalent in euros. For me, apart from what today is known not final and of course if confirmed on appeal would have its effect on the company do not see what has happened and the stock price. Clearly there are risks and that part of their revenues depend on a sector such as entertainment at the moment with difficulties but is no less true that trading at attractive rates and the acquisition in Brazil looks like a medium-term opportunity or at least what some analysts saying he tried to buy TELEFONICA

Reflections and decide but my point is that the value of the company is well above the price at which the market now recognizes, of course if it continues its descent and investment can be made to 16.5 the better but we never know is how far he can get the margin that the market will give us and if we must be clear how much is enough for everyone .

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DOES DISCRIMINATE TRUE THAT THE MARKET? RESULTS BANKINTER

Curiously, most analysts say the market tend to discriminate and that the price contains all the information. I can be more or less agree that in the long term the market discriminates and that sooner or later recognize the value of companies traded in, but I'm short of saying that no, the price does not contain all the information. A few comments and questions may throw light on it.

How can understand that only last a couple of weeks most technical analysts claimed that it had to be in the market. " They are the defenders of the market (price) values \u200b\u200band expresses all the information.

How can we understand that most of the values \u200b\u200b(especially the big ones have reacted in much the same way?.

The truth is that most of these great values \u200b\u200bthat represent more than 50% of indicators have been left just a couple of weeks 10% of its value, or at least that's what they say their current prices, because I do not.

Go ahead I understand that technical analysis has its uses as well as other tools but we can not forget that humans if there is something we are known, is by mimicking what we see, if all we also buy and vice versa. Therefore, without disdain understand that can not be used as a unique tool to be in the markets, ie to invest.

I think the study of the fundamentals of a company (albeit complex) goes further and allows calm analysis of what is behind it and its ability to generate cash flows that the end of the day is what to an interested investor.

understand is why the market is irrational and does not discriminate, and it is precisely this lack of discrimination ability, which enables those who is able to analyze the information available to invest with a reasonable safety margin to obtain an adequate return. Return that we can not know whether to produce in 2 months or a couple of years, as the irrationality of the market means that many factors (mainly psychological) does not reflect the potential of the business.

In a brief way I mention, by way of example only companies that after discounting the downhills too many uncertainties right now and personally I do not see these, at least to the extent that the price shown.

can include all known companies such as Vivendi, FRANCE TELECOM, TOTAL FINA, DANONE, EON, EXXON, TELEFONICA, REPSOL. To cite only companies important capitalization, which at current prices if we consider its normal capacity to generate cash trading at very attractive multiples.

Finally, indicate that it is in these companies where they usually find more hidden value for the market, but the quote because I believe are the most best known. There are many other smaller companies that have fallen to attractive prices, you know I usually choose my analysis companies in various sectors and sizes, but usually in the mid-size and small is where I usually find most dysfunctional between price and value of the company.

I leave for both reflection to UDS, a set of questions as a summary:

Is it normal if the market discriminates most large-cap companies rise or fall as a flock of sheep at the same time?. Would it do so well so abruptly and in similar percentages?.

you own.

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2009. CLARIFICATION

comment on the published yesterday in the blog, a kind reader left a comment saying they would not understand one of the paragraphs. Specifically which begin with and I quote the beginning of the party who does not understand:

"Based on the above question is whether BK at current prices (ranging between 8.5 and 9 )....."

simply concerned the appointment contained in quotation marks and comments in another color, this quote as indicated in the same comment belongs to another comment above on value, that actually now listed under 7 Euros as also explained in the commentary.

I hope that with this clarification and a second reading is clear the issue.