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Cont. SPANISH STOCK MARKET RESULTS AND 2009. DETAILS

questions and considerations on the commentary he published a few days after publication of the results of 2009.

As followers of the blog know, I do not usually make individual responses mainly by the time it would entail. However on occasion I have, on this occasion I will make a couple of details of the commentary and the comments that readers have seen fit to make.

The comment indicated that I still own the company some time and I've posted several comments on the blog recommended by this circumstance to the contents of the above comments, it made no sense to repeat all the points already made. Having said that I would like to discuss:

- Possibility of Opa and his account of the valuation. Already commented in the first comment in December 2008 and therefore I agree with what a reader noted in his commentary, however noted that this fact is not generally considered when analyzing a company, since this is not a decision which necessarily have to produce, so I have considered the fact but not the value and thus, if any, is a plus. This is when I say in the commentary that I believe that there is value did not include this factor.

- Dividend. I've posted a comment about it and as I say in it, I hope to write in more detail on dividends in general.

- Sale of part of Santander. It is obviously not good news but not necessarily a determinant, as indicated in my remarks investment decisions are individual and Santander will have reason to have taken such an investment.

- Ratios standard. I quite agree, shades apart, with the assessment; not use exactly standardized results, try to do my estimates based on what would normally be to build the company's financial data to analyze, trying to eliminate normalemnte data are unlikely to be repeated at least in the short term. I think if you read carefully my analysis can understand what it indicates.

- 95% of trading volume. I can not say yes or no, the reader can take right but the fact is that this is the volume and I fear that trading is not porpio of the great national values \u200b\u200bbut that occurs in all markets to a greater or lesser extent.

- Increased income and therefore results following types of rate rise interest. The company operates a cash amount (guarantees provided by third parties, etc) huge in the current circumstances rate produces no significant effect on the income statement, think about what happened only last a couple of years with much more attractive rates .

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SPANISH STOCK AND MARKETS.

comments published yesterday analyzing the 2009 results of BME. A kind reader asked if I deserve some comment on the dividend issue.

Sometime publishes comments on dividends in general, but in a very short note that I do not think the dividend a key issue to consider in making investment decisions. I understand that what matters is the ability to generate cash and another thing which it is intended that box.

said, it is obvious that is welcome to collect the profitability of the company as a dividend because in a way that ensures periodic return and is not going to lose, santa rita blessed what is given is not removed ... , But apart from that there are many considerations on the subject in a commentary devoted to try to analyze in greater detail and profusion.

Thanks anyway for your kindness.

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STOCK DIVIDEND AND SPANISH MARKET NATURAL GAS RESULTS 2009

The December 3, 2008 started the comments on the company, which on the other hand, is still one of the more regularly in the English market and since then I have made several updates the last one during the month of November 2009. Today has posted results that are slightly higher than the estimates that I performed in the first comment, namely 6% more, when many expected a setback that has not happened.

Let us squarely on the results presented and the situation of the company. Include:

* Net recurring (ie not atypical), just over 136 miles / Euros.

* EBITDA, also recurrent, of 194 Mill / Euros.

Based on these data and taking into account the capitalization at the close on Thursday 18 / 2, 1660 Mill / euro, trades at a PER of 9.8 after allowance net cash that the company has at the end of 2009.

The EV / EBITDA would be slightly below 7 times.

important data being based on them every indication that there are differences between value and price and that seems an option to consider, one wonders if in the future and on average are repeatable and therefore can actually be thinking BME.

In order to place the issue and allow others to draw conclusions, I will include additional data as well as some reflection that I consider of interest.

1) In recent months, the trading of shares (cash value) has been stabilized with a slight upward trend.

2) During the month and a half has passed, 2010, trading volumes have increased razonablemene over the same period in 2009. This does not mean that the trajectory is maintained, but suggests that in volumes of recruitment appears that the worst has passed and any further damage, if they should not be produced were significant.

3) The company maintains a positive operating leverage, I explain, with income not linked to volumes is able to cover 100% of their costs, though trading volumes in 2009 were lower than in 2008 . Besides operating costs are contained with slight decreases in 2009 compared to the previous year.

4) The 3 most liquid securities market of the European Union listed on the English stock market (SANTANCER, TELEFONICA, BBVA), besides indicating the importance of these companies in the market, our market (BME) is efficient and competitive as we should not forget that there are other large-cap companies in EUROPE.

5) The financial results for 2009 were considerably lower than in 2008, nobody can deny the interest rate environment in both years with very steep slopes in 2009. In the medium term interest rates will tend to higher levels allowing for a greater contribution to firm performance. I hope to see this circumstance in the latter part of 2010.

Based on the foregoing, it seems that the result of 2o10 should not be less than 2009 and that on the contrary, could be somewhat higher.

But before drawing a hasty conclusion we must consider other factors, which may involve possible reserves for the future input. Include: the

1) 4 th Quarter Results slightly lower than the previous quarter despite the increase in volumes, which may denote an unfavorable business mix. This business is more weight to lower fees (characteristic of blocks and large investors) to the detriment of small investors that after what happened in the markets seems to be missing and possibly more later to return to stay.

2) Increasing competition from other platforms, it is true that there is, the truth is that after more than a year, the share captured by these platforms do not exceed 1% at least regulated business. Another thing is to negotiate with other instruments such as eg. CFD, but the fact is that the volumes in the regulated market, seem to suffer.

3) regulatory changes to be introduced in the settlement system which now monopolizes. There is no specific legislation at this time, but it is true that in a couple of years there should be such legislation and to force settlement share with third what it will effect on revenue, but it is also true that there is time to make decisions and defend, in fact today in the submission managers have pointed out the possibility of taking advantage of the occasion to try to compensate as far as possible with the facet of the operations log.
In any case, we must know that the EBITDA of this business line is 25% of the company and that is unthinkable, at least for me, I can lose more than 50% of that business in very extreme cases and producrise, take several years so that the deterioration would be gradual and would manage option.

4) Slight fall in revenue from derivatives I understand on the basis that markets are experiencing a deleveraging process that seems to have ended.

Undoubtedly these factors pose threats in some measure must be taken into account, however the more regulation, at the same time, may provide an opportunity since to some extent could be a barrier to competition from other platforms against organized markets in which BME participation.

Considering the information I know now, I still think the same thought in the first comment and can be summarized as follows:

- still waiting for results in the setting of 135/140 Mill / Euros for the year 2010. I see no risk of there is a deterioration that could cause actual results for under 120 mill / Euros, results that translate into cash flow consistently.

- BME is a reasonable option. There is an adequate safety margin for return on investment to the market prices required by 02/18/1910.

- I continue to believe that the stock value is at least 27 Euros and that the market discounts over the possible effects that competition can have on the company's medium-term, competition in general affects all sectors. Furthermore managers have shown they know to guide the company to maintain adequate results despite having delivered in the form of dividend most of benefits.

For complete information, I recommend reading the comments on this company previously published.

Finally as always, remind that investment decisions should be taken with a risk control, with a sufficient safety margin (which as usual is different for each investor) and individually, all regardless of are contrasting opinions with others.

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. Investment options. 3

Today the company has published annual results for the 2009. Input comment that the Net is somewhat lower than previously estimated, whereas the EBITDA has been quite in line with my estimates. The company has suffered enough in the generation of income, although this fact has been almost offset by a better supply costs, gas prices along with the depressed market in SPAIN (low industrial activity) have been behind.

The figures should be highlighted are:

* Net income of 1,195 mill / Euros.
* EBITDA and EBIT in 3937 and 2448 Mill / Euros respectively.
* Net Debt in the vicinity of 18,000 miles / Euros, net of divestitures already agreed although in some cases have not been carried out.

is interesting to know these figures as a starting point but I think that the analysis can not be carried out under the sole consideration of them. The reason is simple, do not represent a full year since NATURAL GAS has been taking over the UN. FENOSA gradually until the end of April no place overall consideration of both businesses.

From my p. of v. everything indicates that the result can be two hundred and first place in the vicinity of 1,400 miles / Euros and recurring EBITDA after divestitures still to be made, in about 4,300 Mill / Euros.

Taking into account the capitalization at the end of 15 / 2 was 12,245 mill / Euros, PER 2010 would be around of 8.8 while the EV / EBITDA would be 7 times.

Following previous comments posted, I'm estimating that remains an option interesting investment and below 17 Euros should not liquidate the position.

UDS

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Cont. ECONOMIC ANALYSTS AND JOURNALISTS. Do they deserve our credibility? TOTAL FINA RESULTS

As you know, I wrote repeated comments about the price targets of the analysts and the credibility that I deserve. Today it is up to the analysts who are often involved in the media and journalists involved in programs devoted to economic analysis and particularly the investment, that is commenting on the financial markets and assets that they bid.

I'll give some examples of what I have observed and for brevity I will refer to the last few weeks. I think a few are enough. I try to play with more accurately what I have heard or read.

a) is common to hear phrases like

1) "Good for ..." conticuación to the value name or company.

2) "What is doing very well ..." then the value name.

3) "What hurts? ..." Then the value name.

b) Another example is the question asked this afternoon to an analyst on the impact of measures taken by the European Union, Greece, well the analyst indicated that the lack of specificity had assumed tremendous rebuke to the markets, with continued declines even in the case of E. United, well for anyone who is not aware the subject I do not understand comment as E. Held together at that time increases in all indices in some cases were close to 1% and I fear that his comment came at the case of IBEX is the only one that closed with significant declines, at it's best to just follow the market English. But I wonder, how can discuss this thing and make such a mistake by a professional?. Prima "and leave the figure in the media?. I do not know but I do not understand.

c) Also this afternoon, another analyst asked for several values \u200b\u200brecommended not to take positions in any of them, I remember that this same analyst a few weeks ago implied that had to be in the market. Asked about the possibility of some value to enter, indicating that there is none now nor in SPAIN or in other markets, by insisting the market interviewer E. Together, more or less commented that with more than 9000 companies it is normal that had some but he did not know him.

wonder why not listen and read one day an opinion and a few days against the same person. I agree that it may change your mind, but it has to be done and reasoned arguments. I will miss not stayed up If after a few weeks to stock indices above 4%, indicating that there was an opportunity to enter, as they did In July 2009, when in March many of them indicated that there were no opportunities.

UDS Do not know if they have similar views to mine and observed behaviors as they indicated?

At some commentary I've joined my reservations about the technical analysis, at least in absolute terms and made no further references. But each day, as I indicated in the various comments I write, I am convinced of the need to compare any opinions and make decisions based on the information to be able to understand.

understand that at least in our country, there is an important part of analysts who seem to respond quickly and without issues that deserve deep reflection and from my p. of v. contribute very little to the understanding of what the world of finance and the minimum security that investment decisions should be surrounded.

thus not trying to discredit anyone, but to reflect on the importance of questioning claims that the media must make an every other day too, and try to tease apart the messages that are received with the information that one is able to obtain and evaluate.

I ask again UDS reflect on the subject that I propose and make their own decisions regardless of whether or not value what they read and hear. Total

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2009. KRUGMAN

Fina is one of the worldwide leaders in the extraction and refining of oil and derivatives.
The results presented in 2009 can be summarized as:

* Adjusted net income for 7784 Mill Group / Euros, a decrease of 44% over 2008.

* Cash flow from operations slightly over 13,000 miles / Euros.

With these data and taking into consideration the closing price yesterday of 40.9 Euros is a PER of about 11.7 times. Not a multiple input demanding but does not offer sufficient scope to be considered an investment option.

However, before taking a position, we must consider and discuss various aspects, both of which I summarize as follows:

1) Crude oil prices in the first half of 2009 have been on average below $ 50 while in recent months have ranged approximately 80. This fact is reflected in the accounts where the 4 th T. it reached almost 2,100 miles / Euros of net profit.

2) In most industrialized countries appear to the deepest part of the crisis is behind us and therefore, albeit slower, global growth is quite probable. This circumstance seems to me that going to be a crude average prices above 70 Euros which must enable growth of the company's results.

3) At current prices the market is paying about 1.8 times book value.

4) If we take into account its cash position and cash equivalents PER with the 2009 results would be approximately 10.5 times.

5) is a little indebted company and therefore have little risk in this regard. Its net debt is approximately 27% of equity.

6) The dividend that aims to spread and continues its usual criteria, represents a yield just over 5% on the quoted trading price. My esitmación

outcome for 2010 provided the price on average oil remains above $ 70 is for some 8,700 Mill / Euros, which would be a PER in the vicinity of 9.3 times. EV / EBITDA well below 6.

negative side I must say that I was surprised by the increased capital of maneuver for the activity that has drained more than 3,000 mill. / euros per cas flow from operating activities and that makes me doubt in this regard.

With these data and taking into account the forecast I make for 2010, the question is: Is

an investment option?.

My impression is that there is scope and its value is at least 25% higher than the market now recognizes, is that its contribution should be of approximately 50 Euros and we are in a very important economic activity. Another thing is that each value if the margin is sufficient or not. From my point of view is interesting but not decisive margin but I think you have to participate to some extent in the sector.

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VALUATION. Which is it?

few weeks I've been surprised, surprised by the statements of a Nobel Prize.

Go ahead I am not an expert in macro and this may be the reason for my surprise, but I think this gentleman was one who argued that proper treatment for the start of the crisis were spending policies and indeed it seems that our president used their arguments and used them to defend some extent management policies to overcome the crisis.

The last days come hear comments put into the mouth of this man's difficulty crossing the European Union about the situation of SPAIN and the risk involved in our deficit.

Today I read again these arguments in the following link
.

I wonder, what do you stay?. I have no answer, it must be my lack of training and experience in this case, it makes me think and makes me reflect on the need to apply common sense as we all know is not the most common of all sense and which I believe enough has not been used.

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INVESTMENT BANKS. CREDIBILITY WHAT WE DESERVE? PENSION REFORM

You know the credibility that I think the price targets on shares that provide the analysts, especially if they are investment banks.


Today I'm going to leave a reflection on the recommendations in other areas typically perform.


As you probably know most of UDS have been fashionable since the CDS (Credit default swap) insurance to cover default risk of the debt of third parties.


Well, some houses (investment banks) are recommending buying these lately insurance to cover the possible risk of default on the debt of the English State. It so happens that right now the difference is the English debt to other countries (eg Germany) has increased and consequently the cost of insurance has risen.


My question is:


Do not be that they are growing fears in order to sell insurance?.


This is not to ignore the reality of the situation, the deficit situation by crossing SPAIN and the difficulty to reverse the situation to more reasonable levels. which will mean increasing debt and a corresponding distrust. But to recognize the situation evidence supporting the need to hire CDS to hedge the risk at current prices is a stretch. Therefore I do not doubt that sooner or later the situation had calmed down and a few filling the bag with a few Euros.


blog readers know (according to comments published at the time) I do not recommend being overweight in R. FIXED in general, but I get the feeling that we must be prudent and there is enough noise in the market looking for the whole business of a few.


you own.

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HOMOSEXUALITY AND AMERICAN ARMY. LGBT

Leonard Matlovich. He was a soldier of the Air Force and died in 1988 of AIDS.

Matlovich's grave is very 'American', ie discrete and cold. Your registration is also discrete, cold and hard: "When I was in the military they gave me a medal for killing two men and drove me to love another." Matlovich

fought in Vietnam and became a celebrity in America. But the Air Force got him accepted. The reason is that he was homosexual.

Barack Obama seems poised to end discrimination against homosexuals in the United States Armed Forces. Among other things because the rejection of homosexuals the Pentagon is expensive, useless and dangerous. A report by the Center for America Progress (CAP, according to its acronym in English), whose identification with the Democrats is total, demonstrates what it costs to U.S. policy: at least 41,000 soldiers, including those who do not join and 800 who are expelled each year. In some cases, this attitude is almost suicidal. In 2003, no less than 320 linguists with knowledge of Arabic and farsi, were expelled from the military for being gay.

Not only that: 73% of the military have no problem with gay comrades. Matlovich

now seems on the verge of victory that did not get in life. Many other heroes of the constant wars of the United States, however, lie around the country with their sexual orientation and their discharge from the armed forces hidden. Are the unknown soldiers gay.

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Balearic Federation distributed a guide to transgender teachers

The purpose of the edition of this guide is "to inform the general public about the concept of transsexuality and the issues presented by this group, raise awareness and to avoid stereotypes about sexual identity," according to reported the Balearic LGBT in a statement.

The guide, whose presentation was attended by the director Consell Insular de Mallorca Equality, María José Varela, and the president of the Federation, Carlos Nieves, will be distributed on the campus of the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB) and elsewhere that may be of interest. EFE

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. RESULTS

few days ago, started this series of comments, as well the next day the controversy continues, the government of SPAIN through its Ministry of Economy Brussels sent a note explaining how you will address the deficit. On the issue of pensions, including possible measures to be applied, indicating the increase the period of calculation from the current 15 to 25. Known

document, the media echoed the highlighting the inconsistency of the government, which in SPAIN only became public that the proposed reform was based on raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 years. The surprise, at least mine and I think many, has been that the government eliminated a few hours in the document as a reference, saying their removal on the basis of social turmoil raised to what was just an example to experts.

My thinking is:

1) It seems that the government has us by the English in Brussels idiots and are able to understand what we are not able to do. I wonder, is it because the education system we have?, Was a joke ...

2) It seems that the measure proposed among possible to Brussels was rational, why not increase the computing time?, Is not this measure sound?, I understand if short. But at the same time filters that are studying the Self-listed by the actual net income to avoid the bases of price rise in recent years and thus the board. So they stayed, gradually increasing the period of calculation for reasonableness would have the effect of making the pension benefit provided more representative of the contribution made, clearly if we collect something, that the rate we're going, who knows.

3) How can the government think we can not create what is presented as a simulation is just to play, Is engaged to perform simulations in the documents that are sent to Brussels just for fun?. Let us be serious as contained in the document was a government shuffle option.

Finally, I wonder, what is the reason for the constant fear that they say?; in this issue, as perhaps in many others, all point to what is now pure white within a couple of days can be just pulling a dark blue to black ...

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Cont. SANTANDER 2009

The accounts presented by the Bank yesterday offered no new items of importance to consider, however I will review the following information:

1) The bank continues to generate increased margins on both sides of interests and gross.

2) The benefit is maintained, although in the present circumstances and as you guys know it is a fact that my main focus attention.

3) The credit granted is growing at around 9%, but due to the increase that occurs SPAIN outside.

4) The delinquency rate continues to rise to 3.24% from 2.04% last year. It remains a very fineness ratio.

5) The low coverage rate to 75.3%.

6) Return on equity (ROE) fell significantly from 17% in 2008 to 13.9% in 2009. So does the return on assets becomes yours, 86% from 0.96% the year before.

7) Earnings per share down to 1.05 Euros, ie 14% less than in 2008, undoubtedly as a result of the extension made to strengthen its balance sheet.

Moreover, it is clear that the bank is trying to swim and eat, that is, while it has achieved a significant increase in margins that would have allowed increased coverage of their arrears up to 100%, with positive results but had declined to around the 4500 Mill / Euros. Instead, he has worked to strengthen its capital structure by increasing their capital ratios (Tier and Core Capital) to be able to face difficult times ahead in the coming quarters. The presentation

try to dispel doubts about the possibility of a low level of provisions that the bank has provided, in particular the CEO was devoted to detailing that part of the balance of assets is invested in loans promoter, showing that is very relevant in the case of Santander, while there is no concentration of risk. It is appreciated the effort out of concern that exists, but the risk is not only promoting the credit risk in general and especially in SPAIN, where unemployment situation and the growing suspicion that the delay will continue to increase and that therefore from a position of 100% coverage would have been a very good sign.

To end the question and question ever.

SANTANDER Is A suitable investment options at current prices?.

recall that when analyzing the results of the 1 st half of 2009 and the price got a bit above 10 Euros, my position was clear, he saw no scope for investment at that price. At this time, particularly now the bank has traded below 9 Euros, at that price it is paying more than book value in the vicinity of 1.1 times and if we believe the results and estimate reasonably repeatable in the coming quarters, the PER would be around 8.5.

Keep in mind that the bank's business right now is very diversified and that a rate higher than 70% is obtained outside the country, the question is whether the result in a 9,000-Mill / Euros can be considered appellant over the next years. From a standpoint of ratios, today under 9 euros do not think this expensive, but I think it will be difficult to maintain the result and increase it even more and that is why I believe that there is room for prices slightly higher than the current margin I do not see enough to enter value regardless downs that has been so pronounced in recent weeks may have specific increases that can be exploited in the short term.

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PENSION REFORM. "Again the 2 Spain? VIVENDI

few days ago the government of Spain has announced its intention to propose a reform of the pension system, little has materialized in this regard, only that the retirement age would be 67 years and that the implementation of the scheme would progressively from 2013.

Fits
thousand reflections, I think anyone is aware that only last a few weeks the government is fully filled his mouth saying the system was guaranteed to go to defend their proposal based on the need to ensure the benefits from 2020 and to appeal to their sense of responsibility, a responsibility that seemed to have no 30 days ago. Do not try to assess the need for reforms that are likely to be necessary, but if you intend them to reflect on the safety with which they have handled and managed our finances, for all because we can not forget that the pension system and health has much to do with the management to be performed.


UdS Do you think it has been managed the system properly?.


may be useful to reflect on the following questions: How


been allowed in many cases early retirement after 48 years?.


If gentlemen, in our country over the past 15 years has promoted the expulsion of the labor market of hundreds of thousands of workers under 60 years at great cost in lost talent and the corresponding financial resources to fund that expulsion, together with the pension that in most cases it has been several years before 65.


But also the different governments have encouraged early retirement law is enough to recall, among other figures of the replacement contract, under which a worker is allowed to access the early retirement provided that the post be filled by another worker. How


certain groups, such as read deputies are entitled to retirement pension with just a few years of contribution?.


It seems that we are again at 2 Spains, citizens with rights first and second they have rights that governments have let them.

need not go into other considerations but suffice remember the trend that we have as citizens to try to get part of the public where there is the paragon of rights and obligations not always.


According to the criteria that are handled in this blog, it seems necessary to show that the finances are not managed with the margin of safety required, certainly not the pension system or the whole of government . Beyond the need for solidarity, necessary for a pensions sitema seems clear that as much as is claimed must not forget, I think we need serious and especially "freedom of choice to citizens." Freedom is not limited to elect representatives every 4 years, on the contrary need to exercise as each affects the pension directly and I'm sure it does.


I will raise a series of questions to think about it:


1. Where is the solidarity when some citizens are allowed access to a benefit with 20 years of contributions while others are required 35?.


2. How can you treat differently from 2 people who have contributed 35 years to have a misfortune of being expelled from the labor market with 55 years?.


3. Why are the last 15 years that weight to determine the benefit?.


you do not believe that the reason for the need that now sells for reform is the result of:


a) Lack of courage and ability to really establish a rational and coherent system.


b) wastage of funds due to lack of proper management.


UDS Do you think that governments are managing well SPAIN resources available?.


I wonder if you can not manage more rigorously, eg


- Plans as we just saw and have been to spend 8000 Mill / Euros to the voice of now, plans have consisted of most cases to change the width of sidewalks, the paving of streets, etc.


- duplication of responsibilities in various Administrations in.


- Many enterprises within the various administrations that are managing expenditure and non-value, as Examples include TVs of different communities and gradually try to introduce too local.


- In short, do we need more than 3 million employees (state, regional, local) to the services provided by this country?. Meanwhile


think the solution to the problems coming for patching a pension system lacks rationality, while we are not aware that waste can not devote resources to create jobs that allow young people in this country (no doubt with training and skills) to develop its project of life that seems not entitled.


I will give, in my p. v, which should be some guidelines (features to look) of a real reform that would allow some degree of equity and solidarity, a solidarity which should be completed with funding from taxes (read: no new taxes but better management of existing ones) .


1) First of all workers' freedom to decide when to start working and when they decide to end their working lives.


2) Provision retirement taking into account all contributions made and the time in which you want to start to perceive, this is in terms of life expectancy of the moment in which it will begin to perceive. I wonder why can not decide to start working at age 20 and quit at 58?. If the worker then has a life expectancy of 22 years and prefer to have eg. a monthly pension of 1,300 Euros instead of 1,900, what is the reason for not accepting it?.


3) It is possible that certain groups have to have special conditions for the type of work they do and could study some correction factors when periods and calculations of the pension.


I have the perception that the political class in general and our country in particular, is fleeing the freedom of citizens and in general make a machine to control and irrational spending.

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. ACTION FOR misled investors

This weekend has seen a statement acknowledging that the company did not adequately inform investors about 9 years. The sentence will be appealed by the company could provide substantial compensation.


I am not surprised that this morning after the news became known on the market, shares go down VIVENDI more than 3% in fact currently listed in the environment of the 18 Euros. I take the fact that a good time to ask again if the price is always summarizes all information about a value, I repeat again that I do not think, because as it is possible to understand what happened cuendo was known to all the claim at issue to the point that the company will reflect in its financial statements.


Ni tratra view is that a manipulation to sell more shares to small investors and buy a really attractive price. Since the company has grown significantly in size after the acquisition a telephone operator ne BRAZIL, I will not go into a detailed fundamental analysis right now but I leave some UDS data to reflect on this. The data do not take into account the acquisition recently made.


1) the company's capitalization is now approximately 22,500 Mill / Euros.


2) Its net debt is about 8,000 miles / Euros. Liquid assets (Cash and equivalents) prior to acquisition just made in brazil over 3,000 Mill / Euros.


3) The net attributable profit stands in the vicinity of the 2,800-mile / Euros. EBITA in the environment of 5,400 all with a turnover of more than 27,000 miles / Euros.


4) In 2008 the operating cash flow net of debt interest and taxes exceeded the 3,700 Mill / Euros.


5) The company is a leader in the gaming industry is the second telecommunications operator in France and has a leading position in the media sector.


"It seems strange right?, Hard four pesetas and forgiveness because it is the equivalent in euros. For me, apart from what today is known not final and of course if confirmed on appeal would have its effect on the company do not see what has happened and the stock price. Clearly there are risks and that part of their revenues depend on a sector such as entertainment at the moment with difficulties but is no less true that trading at attractive rates and the acquisition in Brazil looks like a medium-term opportunity or at least what some analysts saying he tried to buy TELEFONICA

Reflections and decide but my point is that the value of the company is well above the price at which the market now recognizes, of course if it continues its descent and investment can be made to 16.5 the better but we never know is how far he can get the margin that the market will give us and if we must be clear how much is enough for everyone .