The results presented in 2009 can be summarized as:
* Adjusted net income for 7784 Mill Group / Euros, a decrease of 44% over 2008.
* Cash flow from operations slightly over 13,000 miles / Euros.
With these data and taking into consideration the closing price yesterday of 40.9 Euros is a PER of about 11.7 times. Not a multiple input demanding but does not offer sufficient scope to be considered an investment option.
However, before taking a position, we must consider and discuss various aspects, both of which I summarize as follows:
1) Crude oil prices in the first half of 2009 have been on average below $ 50 while in recent months have ranged approximately 80. This fact is reflected in the accounts where the 4 th T. it reached almost 2,100 miles / Euros of net profit.
2) In most industrialized countries appear to the deepest part of the crisis is behind us and therefore, albeit slower, global growth is quite probable. This circumstance seems to me that going to be a crude average prices above 70 Euros which must enable growth of the company's results.
3) At current prices the market is paying about 1.8 times book value.
4) If we take into account its cash position and cash equivalents PER with the 2009 results would be approximately 10.5 times.
5) is a little indebted company and therefore have little risk in this regard. Its net debt is approximately 27% of equity.
6) The dividend that aims to spread and continues its usual criteria, represents a yield just over 5% on the quoted trading price. My esitmación
outcome for 2010 provided the price on average oil remains above $ 70 is for some 8,700 Mill / Euros, which would be a PER in the vicinity of 9.3 times. EV / EBITDA well below 6.
negative side I must say that I was surprised by the increased capital of maneuver for the activity that has drained more than 3,000 mill. / euros per cas flow from operating activities and that makes me doubt in this regard.
With these data and taking into account the forecast I make for 2010, the question is: Is
an investment option?.
My impression is that there is scope and its value is at least 25% higher than the market now recognizes, is that its contribution should be of approximately 50 Euros and we are in a very important economic activity. Another thing is that each value if the margin is sufficient or not. From my point of view is interesting but not decisive margin but I think you have to participate to some extent in the sector.
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